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Canada Releases New COVID-19 Predictions

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New predictions for COVID-19 in Canada say we could see up to 17,000 new cases in the next seven days.

Canada has over 49,000 cases of COVID-19 and 2,766 deaths as of this afternoon.

Canada’s chief public health officer Dr. Theresa Tam said they also expect at least 500 more deaths by May 5th.

“The predicted number of deaths from COVID-19 could be in the range of 3,300 to 3,900 by May 5th,” Tam announced. However, the federal health official says we seem to be headed for the lower end of their new predictions.

Federal health officials say there have been more deaths than they predicted in their April 9th forecast.

“Outbreaks in long-term care and seniors’ homes are driving epidemic growth in Quebec, Ontario and Nova Scotia currently, and are responsible for the majority of all deaths in Canada,” Dr. Tam said, adding other provinces have seen outbreaks in facilities like prisons.

Dr. Tam said despite that, transmission of the virus has been slowed, noting that early on, each positive case spread the virus to two other people. Tracking shows measures like physical distancing and self-isolation are helping to reduce the average number of people each case infects to just above one. Dr. Tam explained the epidemic will die out when that average drops below one.

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Modelling Suggests Ontario At COVID-19 Peak

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Ontario appears to be at the peak of the COVID-19 pandemic according to public health officials.

Dean of the Dalla Lana School of Public Health, Adalsteinn Brown says peaks are not just one single day they are over a period of time and have ups and downs.

Brown notes it also looks like Ontario is doing a good job of helping stop the community spread of the illness.

“The public health interventions, the physical distancing, the staying home, the hand hygiene and keeping surfaces clean has actually accelerated the peak to now,” Brown said.

In grim modelling presented to the public about two weeks ago, it was predicted Ontario would hit its peak by May.

The Ontario public health officials say it is hard to model how many deaths we may have at this point in the pandemic.